The Khan, his Stan, and Unintended Consequences
Geriatric cynicism, lack of political will, and unchecked power have created this very intended consequence
Dost Mohammad Khan could not have possibly known, back in 1837, that inviting Count Witkiewicz to Kabul in a hamfisted bid to nudge the British into an alliance would culminate in 2021’s latest humanitarian tragedy, the fall and abandonment of Kabul by the spiritual and political successor to the British, the US Empire.
The Great Game was a dominant theme in the 19th century; the British East India Company expanded its influence through trade and control in much the same way the Belt and Road Initiative is attempting to do so, and yes, in Afghanistan too.
The point of this post, yet another amongst dozens in the coming weeks, is to highlight the very real and often tragic nature of unintended consequences in complex systems.
The emir could not have known how his tactical misstep would ultimately play against him, his government, and his people’s fate, but as the leader of his emirate, the unintended consequences of this snowballing tragedy can be traced back to him.
This is where the arc of history is instructional. Han or otherwise, Central Plains polities throughout the ages viewed the Western Regions of their holdings with a mixture of irritation and fear, knowing just how troublesome things could get when dealing in a rich but fiercely inhospitable expanse. Perhaps the players in the Great Game were feeling way luckier than their Central Plains counterparts of yore.
The latest chapter of this saga is slightly different, however. I imagine Dost Mohammad Khan would’ve wanted nothing but stability and prosperity for his emirate, and that whilst the lineage of blame and responsibility can be traced back to him, history might view his actions with some compassion.
This latest chapter is different because the so-called weak signals of this complex system weren’t so much weak as emergency red flares
You don’t even need to be an expert in futures and foresight to know that any abrupt withdrawal of US and its allied troops would leave a vacuum of power for the Taliban to walk right into and fill. Perhaps Biden’s strategic focus is now on Taiwan, to curb the rise of the PRC, but this is no Battle of Ghazni or any such permutation.
This is an entirely intended consequence of geriatric cynicism, lack of political will, and unchecked power.
As always, with the sheer scale of the humanitarian tragedy unfolding in front of our eyes, the civilian women and children suffer the most.
“If it’s a complex adaptive system then you know something will happen you just don’t know what. So you are responsible not only for it, whatever it is and you are responsibly for building a system which has the resilience to cope. Engineering approaches based on efficiency not only don’t work, they represent an approach which in a very deep sense is unethical at best, evil at the worst.” – Dave Snowden