My COVID-19 State of Mind
Humankind’s collective state of mind runs the spectrum from wilful nihilism (Floridian beaches crowded with spring break suicide seekers…
Courtesy of Nature.com
Humankind’s collective state of mind runs the spectrum from wilful nihilism (Floridian beaches crowded with spring break suicide seekers, the band Stereophonics whose homicidal intent finally gives it something of note, religious gatherings) to utter lockdown panic, and the needle is definitely tipping towards to the latter as the gravity of the pandemic is writ large. Add a whiff of eco-fascism and the ghastly picture is more or less complete.
For bloodless and sobering mathematics and a useful refresher in exponential mathematics, read Warner’s very helpful article, and please, if you’re up to it, work through his mathematics exercises.
For an equally bloodless dashboard for the data hounds, we have Johns Hopkins University (JHU) to thank. This is the only dashboard I use at the moment, but if you have other equally reputable ones, please send them my way.
Now that we have those things out of the way, I’d like to focus on the personal, in my case, very personal, because I lived through the SARS epidemic of 2003 and survived the way it altered the course of my life forever. I was 17 then, and twice that age later I find myself in a stage of deja vu, except this time the entire globe is in on it, not just Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong.
No funeral gatherings, cremation without wakes or embalming. Not even sure if last rites or family members were permitted. The temperature checks, the little squeezy tubes of hand sanitiser we carry everywhere, the face masks that no one ever truly got rid of. These types of residual trauma. Trust me, people everywhere on this planet will never not have these things near them again. Being constantly aware that epidemics and pandemics depress economic growth and to brace yourself for job losses and cutbacks and no bonuses.
My father lost his job in pharma sales in the wake of SARS 2003, and instead of preparing to enter university, as I’d dearly hoped to, I completed my final year of high school at night whilst holding a full-time 9 to 5 job in a wealth management firm, working in the lowliest admin position you can imagine, to support my family (as did my next younger sister). There was no time to feel sorry for myself, to think about anything other than getting through 9 to 5 so I could go home to catch up on homework and revising for my SATs, which I did at least manage to complete, and with a decent score, a miracle I will never be able to understand. My university studies were deferred for 5 years, and even then, it was night-time school again, juggling a full-time job in the day.
I’m here to tell you that humankind will survive, this is not quite a population extinction event (yet), but a culling one. I won’t sugarcoat — it won’t be pretty, every single person will be affected somehow, whether because you contract COVID-19 yourself, or know someone who did, or will suffer the second and third order effects, primarily economic.
No industry will be left untouched. Some will never recover. Those which do will be fundamentally changed — in operational models, in power dynamics. Innovations will rise like phoenixes from the ashes of soul-sucking, moribund systems.
I’m no futurist, I just like to dabble in futures, and I have a few thoughts about what the landscape might look like early 2021 onwards, when COVID-19 starts to dissipate. Take these as you will; let’s see what actually happens.
Increased funding and investment in automation and robotics — contactless delivery has never been more of a thing. Driverless pods for no more than 2 people seem like an amazing idea right now. Drone deliveries. Robotic-enhanced manufacturing that can maintain the requisite 6 feet of distance between humans.
Decentralised manufacturing — manufacturing has never truly disappeared from developed nations, only the low-cost exploitative labour required to meet the demand of rabid throwaway consumerism. Nothing except a mindset shift will change that demand. National governments will see the need for some protectionist measures for manufacturing and there might be enough of a groundswell of support for those measures to be pushed through to legislation.
West to East — let’s put aside the blame game for the moment. The PRC government’s actions are not immaterial, but they are irrelevant to this particular discussion. The balance of power has been inexorably shifting West to East, and you can be sure the PRC government will be enthusiastically engaging in soft power diplomacy, working this destabilised period to its favour. Keep a close eye on geopolitics — will global institutions be able to hold the PRC government to account? Maybe. Maybe not. The West is not doing itself any existential favours at the moment. As a person of Chinese descent, whose ancestors mercifully fled China three generations ago, I am watching this with keen interest. NB. I’m using ‘PRC government’ rather than ‘China’ quite deliberately. This semantic difference is extremely important to me.
Capitalism — let’s not kid ourselves, capital flows aren’t going away any time soon. Our entire economic system is built on the notion of capital, not value. Those who think this pandemic will allow us to raze existing systems to the ground are living on another planet. The 10% who hold the most capital are those who are going to be able to weather the effects in their bunkers and their access to healthcare. The sandwiched middle class and the truly piteous working and NEET classes will be too busy battling the immediate health and economic ravages of COVID-19 to think of anything else. You need a sufficiently angry and healthy grassroots movement to topple existing systems. We’re not going to get that. What we will get is increased community support, realising that we chickens are in it together, that we have to help first our families, then others, which leads me to…
Community — families will be torn apart, or brought closer. You will see the best and the worst of humanity, but mostly mediocre because humankind is, on average, mediocre. People will find ways to cooperate in ways that work for the common good, or they will retreat to their bunkers to wait it out. The true heroes will be frontline medical workers, care workers, social workers, delivery workers, logistical workers, transport workers, food workers who keep humankind running. People will start to understand that prioritising mental health is not an option, it will be what literally keeps you alive, apart from food and quarantine.
This leads me to the title of my piece. What is my state of mind? Given my experience 17 years ago, I would say an almost preternatural calm, knowing the tsunami that will hit, and bracing myself and my family for it. If you haven’t already done family contingency planning, much like business contingency planning, get on it. In taichi, the general principle is you absorb the energy of the force coming towards you, and manipulate it to your favour, so that you emerge as unscathed as possible. Live to fight another day.
P. S. If you are a friend or mutual, please reach out if you need someone to talk to. I’m here for you. If you’re a reader, leave a comment and I’ll get back to you. Stay safe, everyone, and STAY THE FUCK HOME. Your faith in your deity will only keep you safe if you don’t do stupid shit.