08 Jul 24 Monday Briefing
Delulu is the Solulu
News Roundup
More exciting electoral news hot off the press this Monday! Well, actually, no. More of the same, or in Mary Harrington’s view, nothing’s changed. We are in what she calls a “post-democratic and transnational new normal”, or an “actually existing post-liberalism”. It is an entrenched system of interests that slouches from one electoral cycle to the next, grasping at the oxygen supplies of the masses.
That has proved to be the case with Labour’s landslide win in the UK this past Thursday, and emerging news from France that Macron’s gamble has paid off, which is to say that France remains as ungovernable as ever, and if you consider losing eighty MPs a winning hand.
Netanyahu is digging his heels in that a new ceasefire deal “must allow Israel to keep fighting until objectives are met”, which sounds like a hall pass to keep doing more of the same.
Remember when I highlighted last week that Xi declared he would not allow China to be baited over the Taiwan issue? Why did the FT report his remarks more than a year after that meeting? Robert Wu over at Baiguan thinks that we have peace, for now, which echoes veteran Singaporean ex-diplomat Bilahari Kausikan’s remarks (see Ponder section) that we have a status quo in the Taiwan Straits that can be managed.
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When private companies run airports, enshittification ensues.
Japan is actually one of the most ass backwards countries when it comes to tech adoption, and this embedded tweet thread tells us why.
Read
An ode to the think-tank that is RAND, which I’ll reserve the right to be sceptical about especially with regards to its impact on US foreign policy. Nice writing and well-researched, though.
It should not be surprising that sometimes the very people who are charged with keeping us safe are the ones who put us at risk.
Ponder
I’ve long admired Bilahari Kausikan’s frank cynicism, which no doubt was nurtured over 37 years serving in Singapore’s foreign service. Is he exceptionally diplomatic with the flavour of his remarks? No. But is he honest, with no rose-tinted glasses as to the state of the world? Yes.
A couple of weeks ago he spoke about the Taiwan and Gaza situations at the National Press Foundation, which I urge you to watch at 1.5x speed if you don’t have an hour to spare. For those who don’t, here are a couple of highlights:
For Taiwan, delulu is the best solulu for now. There is no solution to either situation, but for Taiwan, the status quo can be managed. There is no support for the two extremes of reunification or independence, but there are a couple of scenarios in which China might feel it has no choice but to step in. The first is low probability-high impact, that of a Taiwanese nuclear weapons revival, which no sane person should be in favour of. The higher probability scenario is that something goes awry in Taiwanese politics which, given the bread and circuses that is their parliament, seems way more likely.
As for Palestine, its strategic importance right now is in keeping myths alive, and its value to players in the region is the constant conflict that it is a hotbed for.
Oh, and the Philippines? Well, they are foolish enough to be proxies, and have put themselves in a corner with the US and China. Three-cornered fights rarely turn out well for the little guy, and they might have to learn that the hard way.